The Myth of Trump's Political Magnetism

 There has been a common belief among Republican politicians and their allies in the media that Trump has helped the party by being a powerful force politically who attracts and “energizes” people to vote for him and other Republicans.  It has been one reason and perhaps the main one that many Republican politicians stayed with him.  I think it is also largely a myth. It has become commonplace to say Twitter is not the world, and that taking what one sees there as indicative of public opinion is a mistake. It is also true that a Trump rally is not the world, and that  a few thousand fired up,  ardent supporters are not indicative of public opinion either.

Trump won a very close race in 2016 against the most unlikeable and disliked candidate either major party had nominated for a long time. Polls after the election showed he defeated her  by doing better among voters who disliked both of them. Two years later Republican candidates got hammered in the midterm elections of 2018 mainly because of voters’ dislike for Trump.

 Then Trump lost the presidency as an incumbent to a slow moving, uninspiring, elderly  career politician who scarcely campaigned and whose main selling point was that he was not Donald Trump.  Since 1900 only four elected incumbent presidents before Trump have lost their attempt at reelection. Two, Taft and Bush senior,  were damaged by major third party candidates.  The other two, Hoover and Carter, were running after years of very bad times in the country that many voters blamed on them.  Trump had neither excuse.  After losing the election, his egregious behavior likely tipped the two races in Georgia to the Democrats.

People in the media have focused on the former non-voters or Democrat voters in so-called blue collar occupations Trump added to the Republican party, and there have been some. They need to think about what he has subtracted. Self-supporting, college educated men and women who work in the private sector tend to have values and interests  usually more in line with the Republicans than the Democrats. According to polling and supported by results of elections in suburban areas, Trump has managed to drive a lot of them away. Based on the results the net from his efforts and behavior looks like a loss.

In the last week many Republicans have decided that Trump is no longer a political asset. Going forward and thinking about the place for Trumpism in their party, they should consider whether he ever really was.