Fauci and Covid

 

Anthony Fauci was back in the new lately, both for refusing to answer questions under oath about what he did during the Covid epidemic (despite having a presidential pardon in his pocket) and for things in a diary he kept during the epidemic. Many Trumpists and some ordinary Republicans saw this as evidence that everything or almost everything officials did about the epidemic was wrong, and everything or almost everything they said during the epidemic was a lie. Many leftists and some ordinary Democrats took the positions that there really was nothing to see, that Fauci and other officials did a fine job and dealt honestly with the public, that officials had no political biases and nothing to hide or cover up, and, for many, that Fauci was still a saint, but now also a persecuted one. It was an embarrassing and silly show from both factions.

Fauci behaved dishonestly. He suppressed evidence that the disease originated in the virology lab in Wuhan, likely at least partially because he and colleagues had had a hand in funding and supporting activities at the lab which led to development of the virus. During the epidemic he frequently ignored obvious uncertainties and dismissed reasonable doubts, including some of his own, to deliver apodictic sounding statements to the public. He was arrogant and vain , to the point of declaring that he “was” science. If there is another crisis in public health, it will be harder to get the public to believe it or to trust officials to know what to do about it, partly because of things he said and did.

Many things went wrong during the Covid epidemic. Closing schools was wrong. Shutting down much of the economic and social life of the nation was wrong. Requesting or requiring the same behavior from healthy young people who had little risk as from the old people who really were in danger was wrong. The draconian enforcement of masking was wrong and also demeaning annoying, and idiotic. Suppressing evidence and attempting to squelch discussion about the origin of the disease was wrong. Over selling the effectiveness of the vaccines was wrong and counterproductive. Public health officials and American politicians, including two presidents, did not perform optimally, and often not even adequately.

None of this justifies some of the stuff we are hearing from the right. There is an absurd claim from some conservatives that Covid was no big deal, but rather something no more significant or dangerous than the yearly flu. Some call it the Wu-flu or something similar. That is nonsense. In each of the years 2020 and 2021 several hundred thousand more Americans died than in years before 2020 or after 2021. There were increases in deaths from some other causes in those two years, but, after factoring for them, there remain over 300,000 deaths in 2020 and over 400,000 in 2021 from Covid. The data on this are easy to get with a simple internet search for deaths in each year by cause.

Then there is the claim that the vaccines were ineffective and useless or worse. The evidence is strong that the mRNA vaccines worked well when they first came out and, especially when augmented by annual booster shots, worked fairly well at preventing infection and making infections less severe later on. Development and approval of the vaccines were rushed. Some people had unpleasant reactions to the shots. There should have more caution about effects on pregnant women. But overall the vaccines and the fast way they were created were remarkable successes. Unjustified mandates for vaccination were the fault of the politicians and bureaucrats, not of the vaccines. Instead of recognizing all this, some fools and scoundrels on the right are using the less than perfect record of the Covid vaccines as reasons for skepticism about and opposition to vaccination in general. That is inexcusable.

A person can believe that Fauci was in some ways a bad person who did some harmful things without joining with people out there who are trying to do much worse.

William Frawley Saves Christmas?

There is a delightful scene in the 1947 Christmas movie Miracle on 34th Street where the judge in the case to commit Kris to a mental institution for believing he is Santa Claus is considering how to rule on the question of whether Santa Claus exists.  The judge at first assumes he will have to agree  with the district attorney that he does not.  Then a political boss played by William Frawley  explains things to him.  “All right, you go back and tell them that the New York State Supreme Court rules there's no Santa Claus. It's all over the papers. The kids read it and they don't hang up their stockings. Now what happens to all the toys that are supposed to be in those stockings? Nobody buys them. The toy manufacturers are going to like that; so they have to lay off a lot of their employees, union employees. Now you got the CIO and the AF of L against ya and they're going to adore ya for it and they're going to say it with votes. Oh, and the department stores are going to love ya too and the Christmas card makers and the candy companies. Ho ho, Henry, you're going to be an awful popular fella. And what about the Salvation Army? Why, they got a Santy Claus on every corner, and they're taking a fortune. But you go ahead Henry, you do it your way. You go on back in there and tell them that you rule there is no Santy Claus. Go on. But if you do, remember this: you can count on getting just two votes, your own and that district attorney's out there.”   The judge prudently changes his mind and ducks the question.

Over the weekend Anthony Fauci clearly and explicitly announced on TV that people might or might not be able to spend Christmas with their families and friends this year, and it was just too early to tell.  Then on Monday he declared  that of course people can enjoy a normal Christmas with their families and denied ever meaning anything else. One can  wonder if some modern day William Frawley from the Democrat party gave him the same sort of advice the judge got in the movie. It is surely amusing to think one did. Whatever one thinks of Fauci’s performance on other things in his dealing with the epidemic, his arrogance, shiftiness, and utter failure on the marketing and public relations side are obvious

Origin of the Covid Virus and Epidemic

I do not know how the covid virus originated or first infected people.  If anyone outside of China does know and has evidence to validate his conclusion, he’s not talking in public.  I do have an opinion. I believe the likely hypothesis is that the virus was stored and studied at the virology lab in Wuhan, China and (probably accidentally) released from there.  People at the lab were studying  and working with viruses of the same general sort. The first reported cases were in the area of Wuhan.

 However the main reason for my opinion is the behavior of the Chinese government. That government is a brutal dictatorship with a brutal and unrestrained secret police.  I think one may assume that if the virus came from the lab, Chinese officials either knew it immediately or learned it quickly. If they knew it did not come from the lab, it would have been in the Chinese government’s interest to be free, easy, and open in allowing outside observers and researchers to see whatever they wanted at the lab so that people everywhere would see China was innocent and had nothing to hide. Instead Chinese officials  have done the opposite.

One of China’s main assets in its competition with the United States is its modern day China Lobby of secret agents, ideological fellow travelers, paid flacks, and people with professional or business interests in or connections to China. The Chinese government’s behavior concerning the virus and the epidemic has made it harder for that lobby to function effectively and led to more Americans seeing China as a threat or enemy.  That was predictable, and it strikes me as best explained by the idea that  Chinese officials decided that allowing people to learn what really happened would be worse.

That is not conclusive, but I think it is the way to bet.

Masks Again

 My wife and I followed recommendations on covid throughout 2020. We wore the masks, avoided crowds, and did the “social distancing”. We went months without seeing our grandchildren except via video conferencing.  The only restaurant meals we ate from March though the end of the year were takeout. We cancelled trips and missed a family reunion. We took the Moderna vaccine as soon as it was available to us in January of this year and dutifully waited our two weeks after the second shot. I have consistently advised friends and relatives to get vaccinated.

I will not be following the recent directive to go back to the mask, not because I am sick and tired of the whole mess, though I am. I will ignore the directive because I do not  think it makes sense for someone in my situation.  Because of the vaccine my risk of catching covid is low. Also because of the vaccine, if I do get it, I very likely either will never know it because I had no symptoms or will have only the equivalent of a head cold. That is because, on the evidence, the vaccine works. I have never worn a mask or avoided contact with people to avoid colds or flu. I took the flu shot, washed my hands a lot,  and took my chances. Thanks to the vaccine my risk from covid is low enough that I will be doing the same thing now.

  I do not know if a vaccinated person with an asymptomatic and thus unknown infection can infect an unvaccinated person. It doesn’t seem impossible, but I’ve heard of no study showing it happens with any meaningful frequency. I do know that healthy kids under twelve are at very little risk of serious illness from covid, which makes me oppose orders for them to suffer through another year of masks at school. I also know that  adults who have neither been vaccinated nor recovered from the disease have made a decision to take their chances, and I see no reason to demand that others be inconvenienced to make that decision perhaps very slightly less risky for them.

I am lucky to live in a state that will not be calling in the cops to enforce the directive.  People here will have a choice, and I expect life to continue reverting to normal. But I do hope that more of the holdouts everywhere will go ahead and get vaccinated. It will be good for all of us to get this thing behind us, especially the poor people in the places that are locking down again at gunpoint.

As an aside this directive is moronically bad marketing for vaccination. It usually works better in selling something to someone to point out something he will gain or enjoy from it. Apparently our public health bureaucrats don’t see it that way and think it will work out fine to tell people they still cannot have normal lives even after vaccination but will be running around in masks indefinitely regardless. It also probably is not a good marketing approach for officials to tell people the reason they should obey the mandate is because officials said they should. The “do it because I’m the Mommy” technique does not work well kids, and sensible adults can find it really annoying, as they should.

A Visit to Taos

Taos, New Mexico is not what it was a few years ago. Too many galleries and restaurants have closed. But it is still a fine place to visit. It is an old town, going back to Spanish colonial days, and its citizens have tried to retain some of the appearance of that time.  Even banks and quick food joints are done up in fake adobe.

I was there couple of weeks ago. At a time when life in many other places was returning to normal, there were still many restrictions on people and businesses and still handbills on walls threatening people with imprisonment for not wearing masks. As I walked around among the old buildings near the old square, it hit me. There is a wicked alcalde (well actually governor) oppressing the people through vicious minions. The people are resentful but dispirited and unable to free themselves.  Some have given up while others hang on hoping for better times. It is the Mark of Zorro (1940 version) in a somewhat similar looking setting. The only thing missing and needed for the story is Zorro.

Of course these days governors are not selected by the king of Spain. They are chosen in elections, and one is coming up next year. (The gov has already started her campaign and by coincidence also has announced that if some things go just the way she wants them to, she might be willing to loosen up and allow New Mexicans to behave a little more like free citizens on July 1^st.)  So the people of New Mexico have a way to get rid of the oppressor on their own. They do not have to wait for a Zorro, which is lucky for them.  Still it would have been amusing and encouraging to see a big “Z” cut onto some of those handbills.

New York, New York

That many politicians are vulgar, larcenously avaricious grifters and extortionists who would tax the gold out of the freshly deceased’s teeth if they could get away with it, is not news.  However sometimes one of them manages to surpass his colleagues and do something  along those lines that is newsworthy.  This week Andrew Cuomo did just that. He announced that as thanks to the many volunteers from Samaritan’s Purse and other places  who came to New York at at least some risk to themselves to help local medical people deal with the epidemic, he was going to shake down any of them who helped for over fourteen days for state income taxes. Then, as though advertising himself as a despicable  fool and ingrate was not enough, he offered an explanation.  He said that since the state government had collected less tax money than usual during the epidemic, to would be wrong to give the volunteers a subsidy by not taxing them at a time when he and the boys had problems with their budget.  He apparently really thinks that anything anyone earns in the state is his and that letting someone keep some of what he earns is giving him a subsidy,  a present from his benevolent rulers no different from a welfare check.  That is worth noticing, particularly since some Dems are talking him up as a possible relief pitcher if Biden’s dementia sends him to the showers before the election.

With all that, Cuomo’s behavior was not the worst from a New York politician this week. Mayor Warren Wilhelm (alias di Blasio which plays better at election time) of New York City announced he was suspending the First and Fourteenth Amendments  and decreeing that the people will not be allowed peaceably to assemble and speak about his decrees until he decrees that they can. His seemingly ignorant sidekick the police commissioner explained that this was now a law “passed”  by the order of the leader. Wilhelm is a hard leftist. It is not surprising that he would want to rule in the manner of Castro or the Duce (who at least really had an Italian name).  It is a little surprising and a lot worrisome that he thinks he can get away with it. Maybe New Yorkers will show him he is wrong.

I feel sorry for the decent New Yorkers who are saddled with these two. I wish them better. I also am even more glad than usual that I live in Texas.  Our politicians certainly have their faults and make lots of mistakes, but they look pretty good by comparison.  Some people from out of state have wondered how a woman in Texas of all places could be sent to jail for opening her own business and then refusing to lick the boots of an arrogant, Democrat judge. Well it happened in Dallas.  Politics in Dallas are not what they were years ago. Many of the people in the Dallas area who would vote for Republicans or ordinary Democrats now live in the suburbs, leaving a higher percentage within the city limits of Dallas of people willing to support leftist Democrats. Some of Dallas’s boosters used to speak of their city becoming like New York. In some ways, they may be  getting there. The good news is that after the governor ordered that no one could be jailed for violating the rules of  the declaration of emergency, the state supreme court ordered the woman to be released. Other good news is that people are chipping in help her financially, including paying her fine.

Different Approaches

Republican politicians can be exasperating. Too many are  crude, illiberal on social matters, unserious about liberty, pragmatic in the bad sense of that term, unscientific in outlook, poor at making their case, and generally lacking cohesive, thought out principles. Some  people favoring liberty and individual rights still  support Republicans in elections against Democrats as the lesser evil.  Others say the two parties are more or less equivalently bad and reject both.  Since state and local governments are being left  to make many of the decisions about handling the present epidemic, people have a chance to look at the behavior of politicians from both parties and see if it indicates any meaningful overall differences between the parties.

Republican officials usually have ordered shut downs reluctantly, enforced them fairly politely, relied as much as possible on people going along voluntarily, and begun – usually eagerly – to start getting things back to normal as soon as conditions allowed. From their behavior it seems that they have not liked the things they have done and will be glad to stop doing them.

On the other hand many Democratic officials give the impression of really enjoying having and using this new power over other people. The pettiness, malice, arbitrariness, dogmatic vigor, and simple mean relish with which they have made and enforced  their dictates surely make it seem that  they are having a good time. They certainly are reluctant to let  go. Some even speak seemingly longingly of a “new normal” in which they will keep the new powers indefinitely.  Some of that reluctance to open things up may be a political ploy to hurt Trump in the next election, but that does not explain all of it. (Trump probably  is not going to carry New York in November regardless of how long Cuomo and Wilhelm  keep the state and city shut down.)

Many of us who are fond of neither party believe Democrats on average are more likely than Republicans to want to control more of other people’s lives by force,  and therefore are a worse  threat.  The Dems recently have given that hypothesis a whole lot of support.

TIme to Start Things Up

We have dutifully followed the recommendations for older people to stay at home mainly and to keep their distance when going out.  I have encouraged others to do the same. I thought and still think that as an epidemic of a contagious disease from a new virus with unknown characteristics, lethality, and susceptibility to treatment  spread in this country, it was appropriate to give the experts in public health the benefit of the doubt and to do as they said while realizing that with so much not known, we might be overreacting.

Now I think it is time to open the country back up, and for most people to return to normal life – carefully, incrementally, and at different rates in different places. The dire and frightening things predicted by officials and projected in the early models have not happened.   The stated objective of preventing exponential growth in the number of infections – flattening the curve -  has been met.  Results of random tests indicate that such a high percentage of people carry the virus  - often without having been noticeably sick - that the disease’s actual rate of mortality is likely far lower overall than earlier guessed.    Meanwhile the damage to the economy and to people’s lives from the shutdown is serious, growing, and in some cases disastrous. 

We also have more data about  levels  of risk among various types of people. Though things still are not as clear as one would like, the risk of serious harm from covid 19 seems to be small for healthy people under sixty five or so.  Statistics indicate that older people and people in chronically and seriously  bad health have more to worry about and probably should be careful longer. (I don’t know how much that applies to healthy, active older people. I have not seen  enough data on that and plan to be careful until I do.) Inmates of nursing homes, almost all of whom are both old and in bad health, have a lot to worry about. I expect things will need to done differently at nursing homes until a vaccine or some proven, reliable treatments are on the market.

One of the most unpleasant things coming out of the shutdown is what it has shown about the character and desires of some politicians and their public relations flacks in the traditional media. Many Democrats seem to be enjoying this and yearning for their "new normal" in ways that ought to make the rest of us  wary and a little worried. ( I do not mean their  liking a damaged economy because they hope it will hurt Trump. That is just ordinary slimy politics. This is something worse.)  From banning the purchase of vegetable seeds to calling on people to become police informers against their neighbors  to spying on citizens with drones to threatening to close  churches that hold unapproved services permanently to policing  gatherings of relatives in private homes, leftist officials are using  emergency powers in ways that are arbitrary, often idiotic, frequently unconstitutional, and sometimes downright scary.  One hopes  residents of places such as Michigan and New York will be able to make their civil masters  back down quickly after  this blow over. I also hope that people will remember  how much the officials relished bullying them and pushing them around  - often for no good reason -   and do something about it in future elections.

Fun in Semi-Quarantine

It is now starting to look as though the epidemic may not be as bad as people had feared. That is certainly good news and brings with it the hope  for a return to normal sooner than expected. In the meantime, the semi-quarantines go on. 

Humor helps in this situation, and there have been some really good funnies of various sorts about the epidemic.  Powerline, the Babylon Bee, and other sites have done a good job.   Of course they have had good material.  With our politicians and assorted media buffoons  on the case, there has been plenty to work with. (A story about a reporter for the Times who was working from home, slapping a game board out of his kid’s hands for calling it Chinese checkers, screaming at his wife for saying she was ordering Mexican food for dinner when the scientific name is tacos, and being exiled to sleep on the ottoman in the living room, which he explained  properly should be called a small,  low couch was one of my favorites. I’m guessing that was just satire, but you can’t be sure about things like that.)