2018 Election

As of this morning the Democrats have gained control of the house, and the Republicans have gained three seats in the senate, assuming the lead by the Republican in  Arizona holds up.  While this may not be a “blue wave”, it surely is not good news for Republicans who should have done better in a time of peace and notable prosperity.

 People have suggested various explanations for the size of the defeat in the house.  Republicans‘ voters were less fired up than  Democrats’ voters.   Something like this usually happens  in the first midterm after a new president is elected. Conservatives were displeased by the congress’s failure to pass bills on some things they cared about.  Democrats conned voters with candidates  in swing districts who disguised themselves as  “moderates” rather than leftists. Biased leftists in the traditional media gave the Democrats an even larger than usual boost with their slanted reporting.  Too many Republicans retired or left the house to run for other offices, and so on.

While there is something to all of these, I think an important  reason was the personality and behavior of Donald Trump.  The man acts like a  jackass much of the time.  Some people like that. Many others tolerate it because of  the  generally good things he has done with deregulation, foreign policy, taxation,  appointing judges, and national defense – focusing on his “substance” rather than his style.  However many who favor the things he is doing and like the way the economy is going and usually would vote accordingly cannot get past the style.  My guess is that that there were enough of them to switch a number of seats in the house to the Democrats.  (According to polls, he is not very popular and was not when he won in 2016. In that election he had the advantage of running against an unusually unlikable  and detested opponent.  Some analysts have attributed his victory to his doing better than Mrs. Clinton among voters who disliked both candidates.) 

Perhaps Trump will think about this and start behaving like a sensible, respectable, serious person. That would be a good thing.  For whatever one may think of the Democrats’ style, their substance is pretty rough.