Syria

Many conservatives and others are demanding we both block Russia’s incursion into Syria and “do something” about the disastrous events in that country. Some, including at least one candidate for president, are calling for an invasion.  I have to wonder why. Attempts to reorder the Middle East by both George W. Bush and Barack Obama have usually  made things worse in terms of America’s national interests and often made things  worse for the people of the region.    America’s interests would have been better served by leaving Hussein’s regime in Iraq and Gaddafi’s in Libya alone and by pulling out of  Afghanistan after a short, tough  punitive expedition in late 2001 and early 2002. Instead our interventions produced results worse geopolitically than the status quo ante bellum in Iraq and Libya and probably will lead to an outcome little or no better in Afghanistan.   It is hard to see how intervention in  Syria would work any better.   

Turkey, Israel, and Russia all have interests and understandable stakes in what happens in Syria.  (The Russians and Israelis have announced an apparently amicable understanding about how each will protect those interests.)  So  perhaps we should leave the situations in Syria to them and the Syrians.   We surely should avoid another war with no clear objective, no clear path to success, and no clear national interest to defend or advance.

Horrible things are happening to people in Syria, but that is not a reason to go to war. Most places in the Middle East are  bad and dangerous and rife with conflict and savagery, but nothing short of the Western powers conquering and recolonizing the region (which probably is not going to happen) is likely to change that. Barbarous people will behave barbarically, and attempts to turn their societies into something like Belgium will fail as such attempts have failed in Iraq and seem to be failing in Afghanistan.

This looks like a fight we should stay out of.  Even of one believes there is a national interest in preventing  the ISIS savages from taking control of Syria, the Russians’ keeping Assad in power would accomplish that.  The Russians would retain their influences and naval base in Syria. The Syrians would be left with  the same brutal regime they have endured for decades. The Israelis would have the same situation on their northern borders they have had for decades, and the strategic position of the United States in regard to Syria would be the same as it was ten years ago.