Gold, Silver, and Dry Powder

There are a couple of  differences between silver and gold  that may have an effect on the prices in the next few months. Both metals appreciate when people become less confident in currencies and more fearful of governments, but silver may have  some  particular advantages when people get really scared. It is cheaper. If people with more modest incomes and portfolios get worried enough to want to own some metals, they will find they can buy a little silver here and there for less money than even a small gold coin. Also silver can be and traditionally has been used instead of gold for small and day to day transactions.  People in the late 19^th and early 20^th centuries  usually did not buy groceries, work shirts, or lunches with twenty or even five dollar gold pieces. They  used silver dimes, quarters, halves, and, for bigger purchases, dollars.

If more people get more concerned  - perhaps by a big monetary crisis in Europe or if Obama were  re-elected – there may be vigorous or even frantic demand for silver as a possible currency of last resort for ordinary expenses. Gold and silver could both go up in prices, but silver might go up faster. If there is some movement toward economic and political sanity – say an Obama defeat and a decline in government spending – silver might go down faster than gold as its fear premium faded and smaller investors lost interest. My  guess is that whatever happens in the next year, silver will move faster  than gold.

Irrespective of my guess a person should own some of each. They are part of a diversified portfolio and these days, more than at any time since  January of 1981, they  have important value as insurance. In many ways we have been replaying the disastrous 1970’s with Bush as Nixon and Obama as Carter.  The nation was spared a second Carter term by Reagan’s victory in 1980. We do not know now if we will be so lucky again. One should imagine how bad things would have gotten in a second Carter administration and recall that Obama’s record, associates, ideology, and predilections are if anything worse than Carter’s were in 1980. That should make the case for holding some gold and silver as insurance fairly strongly. They are some of the powder we all should be keeping dry.