Sunday, January 27, 2008

Preparing for the boomers' retirement

Many people are afraid that as baby boomers retire and begin spending their savings, stock prices could be severely knocked down and depressed for years by massive amounts of selling by boomers cashing in their stocks. I believe that there are a few things that could be done in the next few years to make that less likely.
First the government should make the current low taxes on dividends permanent or even reduce them further, optimally all the way to zero, completely eliminating double taxation of dividends. This would make holding stocks and mutual funds for dividend income more attractive for the retired boomers.
Second the government should drastically reduce or eliminate the required annual distributions from IRA’s, 401s, and other retirement plans. Current laws require people to liquidate greater percentages of these assets each year as they age beyond seventy and a half. These rules could create waves of forced selling that would be particularly damaging during years of bear markets. (The mandatory distribution rules could remain for beneficiaries other than wives or husbands. These beneficiaries usually would be the children or grandchildren of the original holder of the accounts and would be required to complete the liquidations over a longer period of time, during much of which it is likely that they would also be saving and accumulating assets.)

Finally, the government should either eliminate the estate tax or set a high enough exempted amount that few estates are liable for it to prevent forced selling to cover death taxes as boomers die and leave accounts to their heirs.

I think these changes could go a long way toward making markets stronger both during the boomers’ retirements and as their assets move to members other generations. They also would encourage saving and investing , offer the boomers better, safer, and more comfortable retirement years, and increase the general prosperity of the country.

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