Whom Should the Republicans Blame?

Regardless of whether John McCain wins or loses tomorrow, it likely will be a tough election for the Republicans. They could take a terrible beating. The best they can hope for is to hold the presidency by a very narrow margin while falling further behind in the House and losing four or five seats in the Senate. This is not much of a best case scenario for a party that just four years ago was talking of a generation long Republican majority in the country, a long term lock on the House and sixty Republican seats in the Senate. So it seems natural to start the recriminations and try to see what caused the reversal of fortune and who is to blame.

First there is just plain bad luck. Bill Clinton was an effective president who had some good economic policies, but he also had unusually good luck. His policies did not cause the computing and telecommunications revolutions or the great increases in wealth and productivity they brought about, but he was president when many of the good things happened. He did note end the Cold War and make possible the benefits of a peacetime economy, but he was president when those benefits were being realized. He generally governed well, but he also governed at a good time. George W. Bush in 2008 governed at a very bad time ( made worse, to be sure, by some of his administration’s failures of policy). He did not invent sub-prime mortgages, dangerous over leveraging, credit default swaps, or mark to market accounting. He did not start or end the housing bubble, but he was in office when these things came together to create the worst monetary crisis in at least twenty eight and maybe seventy five years. Primitive people often irrationally credit or blame their kings for times of good or bad fortune that the monarchs have nothing to do with. Events such as those of the last six weeks can bring out the primitive in all sorts of people.

Then there is George W. Bush, the person most to blame for the decline of the Republican Party. He has been a very bad president. He took office with immense advantages. America’s military power was unchallenged. The nation was at peace. Its currency was strong, and its prestige in the world was immense. Federal budgets were in surplus. The economy was vigorous, and Americans were optimistic despite the unwinding of the internet bubble. His party controlled the House and would soon take over the Senate, giving him the longest period of Republican control of both houses under a Republican president since before 1932. He took all of this and made a hell of a mess for the nation and for his party. Like Jimmy Carter before him, he has become an embarrassing walking lesson in how not to function as President of the United States .

The Republicans who controlled the Congress through 2006 delivered lousy performance as well. While they were no more larcenous or corrupt than the other side, they should have known that members of the traditional media would exaggerate their “ethical lapses” and cover up or minimize those of the Democrats. They needed to be Caesar’s wife, and, by a long shot, they weren’t. They also should have known that they faced important expectations from their voters. A significant fraction of their constituents were not just hungry little piggies waiting at the trough. They were principled, self-supporting people who wanted limited, moderately competent, and fairly honest government. They expected the people they elected to try to give it to them. What they got was a bunch of spineless opportunists who acquiesced to the president’s follies and his war, spent like mad, increased the size of government, voted huge deficits, ignored principles and the Constitution, delivered the pork, and could not even find the courage to protect people’s property against seizure by private developers. Many voters still believe with reason that the Republicans in Congress have betrayed them and are angry and disillusioned.

John McCain has not helped that much either. While he has been handicapped by having George Bush hanging around his neck, that is far from his only problem. He has appeared to be inconsistent, unprincipled, and at times even a little goofy and erratic . On domestic issues his strongest pitch to conservatives, libertarians, and most moderates is that he will be the lesser of two evils, at least most of the time. He makes some good points on national defense, but has trouble making them stick. Senator Obama has done much better tactically as a campaigner. He has fired up the Democratic base with promises that there will be ample fresh slop in the trough without frightening away all the taxpayers who will have to provide it. He has presented himself as a reasonable, moderate, thoughtful, and articulate man. This makes a particularly good contrast to President Bush who seems to be thoughtless and certainly is inarticulate. If he loses , it will be because people feared his (stated and hidden) left wing opinions and ideology, not because Senator McCain ran an effective campaign and convinced people to want to elect him.